🍁 This Week's Signal
The shoreline housing market found near-perfect balance this week, 18 homes sold and 20 new listings. Sales are still 15% higher than a year ago, even as listings linger longer. Neither buyers nor sellers hold control right now.
This balance won't last long. Late October typically brings a shift toward buyer leverage as holiday distractions reduce demand. The next 2–3 weeks are a narrow window of equilibrium before Q4 dynamics take over.
📊 Inventory Flow: 18 Sales, 20 Listings - Balanced Market
Where Are Homes Moving Fastest?
Weekly Inventory Balance (Sold vs New Listings)
Week of Oct 15 – 21, 2025
Inventory Flow (Homes Sold ÷ New Listings)
Above 1.0 = More sales than listings → Seller advantage
At 1.0 = Balanced market
Below 1.0 = More listings than sales → Buyer advantage
Weekly Inventory Flow by Town
🔴 Seller Advantage (More sales than listings)
STONINGTON
4 sold | 2 new listings | +2 net
Inventory shrinking—seller advantage
WATERFORD
3 sold | 2 new listings | +1 net
Inventory shrinking—seller advantage
⚖️ Balanced Market
GROTON
7 sold | 8 new listings | -1 net
Balanced market
🔵 Buyer Advantage (More listings than sales)
MYSTIC
1 sold | 4 new listings | -3 net
Inventory growing—buyer advantage
NEW LONDON
3 sold | 4 new listings | -1 net
Inventory growing—buyer advantage
County Total: 97 homes sold vs. 128 new listings (inventory up modestly).
For Buyers:
A balanced 18:20 ratio means less urgency than summer's tight market. New London and Mystic show more listings than sales — slightly more negotiating room in those towns.
For Sellers:
Listings increased 11% this week. Stonington and Waterford still favor sellers, but everywhere else, pricing accuracy matters most. Review recent comparable sales to stay competitive.
⏱ Market Velocity: Sales Pace Holds Steady at 60 Days
Median Days on Market
Median Days on Market (30-Day Rolling Average)
As of Oct 21, 2025
➡️ Standard Pace (50-65 days)
WATERFORD — 59 days
↓ 4 days from last week
Slightly faster than average
NEW LONDON — 63 days
↓ 3 days from last week
Near county average
MYSTIC — 48 days
↓ 1 day from last week
20% faster than county average
STONINGTON — 65 days
↑ 3 days from last week
Slowing slightly
🐌 Slow Lane (Over 65 days)
GROTON — 68 days
↑ 3 days from last week
More time to negotiate, consider offers
Market Average: 60 days
Last year at this time: 30 days – showing a normal seasonal cooldown.
Speed Overview:
Standard (45–65 days): Mystic, Stonington, New London, Waterford
Slow Lane (>65 days): Groton — more time to negotiate offers
Let’s zoom in on one town moving against the tide.
Mystic holds a 48-day average — 20% faster than the county norm. Despite more listings (4 new vs 1 sale), low overall inventory keeps demand steady.
💰 Seller Adjustments: 16.9% of Listings Show Price Cuts
(% of active listings with price cuts)
Active Listings with Price Reductions
As of Oct 21, 2025
⚠️ High Adjustment Activity (Above 15%)
NEW LONDON — 25.0% with cuts
↑ 1.9 pts from last week
One in four listings has reduced price—highest in county
WATERFORD — 19.6% with cuts
↑ 3.9 pts from last week
Adjustment activity increasing
MYSTIC — 18.5% with cuts
↓ 0.3 pts from last week
Holding steady near 20%
✅ Normal Adjustment Activity (Under 15%)
GROTON — 12.5% with cuts
↑ 1.2 pts from last week
Below county average
STONINGTON — 8.9% with cuts
↓ 4.1 pts from last week
Lowest in county—declining further
County Average: 16.9% of active listings have price cuts.
Price adjustments held steady week-over-week, showing that sellers are recalibrating rather than panicking. The 16.9% rate suggests stabilization after months of volatility.
Opportunity Signal:
New London shows the most opportunity for buyers, with one in four listings reducing price. Sellers there should focus on accurate initial pricing and recent comparable sales to avoid later reductions.
🏡 Quick Hits
Market Snapshot: Groton $349K (PITI: $2,595/mo), New London $377K ($2,800/mo), Waterford $450K ($3,342/mo), Mystic $774K ($5,751/mo), Stonington $845K ($6,274/mo).
Rent vs Buy: Groton (0.85), Waterford (0.66), New London (0.63), Mystic (0.52), Stonington (0.45).
In Stonington and Mystic, owning costs twice as much as renting comparable homes.
(Assumes 20% down, 6.25% fixed rate, 30-year term.)Luxury Spotlight: 11 Main St, Mystic at $6.50M.
Starter Homes: 60 listings under $300K — Groton leads.
Biggest Price Cut: 301 Osbrook Pt, Stonington reduced by $400K (16.7%) to $2.00M
Market Snapshot reflects median home prices for each town. PITI estimates assume a 20% down payment and a 6.25% fixed-rate mortgage over 30 years.
🔮 Looking Ahead: Next 2–4 Weeks
We’re entering the final stretch before holiday slowdowns typically begin. Current conditions: 20 new listings, 18 sales, 60-day velocity, and a stable 16.9% price cut rate.
What to Watch:
New listings: Below 15/week signals the holiday freeze has begun.
Days on market: Above 65 = demand weakening; below 55 = renewed demand.
Price cuts: Rising above 20% means seller urgency; below 15% shows confidence.
For Buyers:
Balanced conditions favor thoughtful searches over rushed decisions. You have more room to negotiate than in summer, though well-priced homes still move fast.
For Sellers:
Buyer activity typically dips from mid-November onward, reaching lowest in late February. Homes priced close to recent comparable sales continue to move fastest. If planning to list before winter, accurate pricing and presentation are critical.
📝 This Week's Bottom Line
Perfect balance arrived this week — 18 sales versus 20 new listings. Sales volume remains up 15% year-over-year even as homes take longer to sell. Demand is solid, buyers selective. After months of seller advantage and September's brief buyer surge, the shoreline sits in temporary parity.
Mystic continues to outpace the average at 48 days on market, while New London sees the most price cuts. Waterfront scarcity meets urban adjustment, creating a patchwork market.
Bottom line: Expect 2–3 more weeks of balanced conditions before leverage shifts toward buyers. Act if you're ready and priced fairly. Wait if you're chasing extreme swings that aren't coming. Clarity, not speculation, is the advantage in a balanced market.
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⚖️ Disclaimer
Data Sources
Data is compiled from publicly available sources including Redfin, Realtor.com, Zillow, and municipal open-data portals. Figures illustrate overall market direction and trends, not certified MLS statistics. Some data may lag actual market conditions.
Not Financial Advice
Shoreline Ledger is an independent publication focused on market analysis and education. I am not a licensed real estate professional, mortgage broker, or financial advisor. This content is for informational purposes only. Always verify details and consult licensed professionals before making buying or selling decisions.